加拿大萨斯喀彻温大学Karl Lindenschmidt副教授讲座及授课预告

发布时间:2019-01-06    作者:    浏览次数:5583


日期/Date

活动/activity

地点/venue

20191915:00

讲座:A novel stochastic modelling approach for operational real-time ice-jam flood forecasting

京师科技大厦1609

2019110

8:30-16:30

课程:Forecasting, managing and mitigating ice-jam floods (Part 1)

京师科技大厦1609

2019111

8:30-16:30

课程:Forecasting, managing and mitigating ice-jam floods (Part 2)

京师科技大厦1609

Abstract of the seminar

Forecasting ice jams and their consequential flooding is more challenging than predicting open water flood conditions. This is due to the chaotic nature of ice jam formation since slight changes in water and ice flows, location of the ice jam toe along the river and initial water levels at the time of jam formation can lead to marked differences in the outcome of backwater level elevations and flood severity. In this paper, we introduce a novel, operational real-time flood forecasting system that captures this stochastic nature of ice-jam floods and places the forecasts in a probabilistic context in the form of flood hazard maps (probability of flood extents and depths). This novel system was tested successfully for the ice-cover breakup

period in the spring of 2018 along the Athabasca River at the Town of Fort McMurray, Canada

Contents of the short courses

Introduction

l  River freeze-up (theory)

l  River ice monitoring

l  River ice-cover breakup, ice jamming and ice jam flooding

l  Forecasting ice thicknesses (with numerical exercise)

l  Modelling river ice processes

l  River ice jam flood risk

l  River ice jam mitigation

Introduction of Karl Lindenschmidt

Dr. Karl Lindenschmidt is now working as Associate Professor at School of Environment and Sustainability, Usask and Global Institute for Water Security. He has been engaged in surface water quality modelling, river ice processes, climate change and river morphology, flood and flood risk management and achieved excellent academic results. He is now member of International Association for Hydrological Sciences and Board member of Canadian Association of Water Resources (Saskatchewan Branch). Through his academic life, he has taught lectures at University of Saskatchewan, University of Winnipeg, Cambridge University, etc.